What is the probability that the Shroud of Turin shows the image of Jesus?

[TonyChanYT]

Concerning the man of the image of the Shroud, Wiki:

He is muscular and tall (various experts have measured him as from 1.70 to 1.88 m or 5 ft 7 in to 6 ft 2 in).[22]

Could this be Jesus?

ESV John 20:

6 Then Simon Peter came, following him, and went into the tomb. He saw the linen cloths lying there, 7 and the face cloth, which had been on Jesus’a head, not lying with the linen cloths but folded up in a place by itself.

John saw at least three pieces of cloth.

face cloth
σουδάριον (soudarion)
Noun - Accusative Neuter Singular
Strong's 4676: A handkerchief, napkin. Of Latin origin; a sudarium, i.e. Towel.

linen cloths
ὀθονίων (othoniōn)
Noun - Genitive Neuter Plural
Strong's 3608: A linen bandage, a wrapping. Neuter of a presumed derivative of othone; a linen bandage.

The exact relationship between this headpiece and the other clothes is not certain.

On the other hand, Turing's shroud was a single piece with images of the head and the body.

The scientific evidence is strong that the shroud of Turin showed a crucified person. Was he Jesus?

Daily Mail:

Scientists from Italy’s National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development spent years trying to replicate the shroud’s markings.
They have concluded only something akin to ultraviolet lasers – far beyond the capability of medieval forgers – could have created them.

Other evidence includes the position of the wounds, the pollen's DNA sequence on the shroud, and other factors. I am 60% confident that the image on the shroud of Turin is that of the crucified Christ.

Generally, the Bayes rule can be used to make any optimal decision in life. In practice, the better you estimate the three input probabilities, the better your decision. Your estimates should be coherent.

See also

• What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
• Bayesian probability in Wiki
• Probability of being a witch, given a letter has been received from Hogwarts